讲座题目： Transport Priority and Composition Effects in Liver Transplantation

讲座人：Baojun Jiang 教授

主持人：李勇建教授

讲座时间：2025年11月13日9：00

讲座地点：南开大学商学院420

讲座摘要：

China’s Green Path established nationwide transport priority for donor organs to reduce delays and improve liver transplantation outcomes. We document that, following the policy, system-wide average cold ischemia time (CIT) increased and post-transplant survival declined, even though—by design—transport performance for nonlocal organs should have improved. We explain this pattern through a composition mechanism: by shortening travel times, the policy expanded the feasible set of nonlocal livers that previously arrived too late to be used. Hospitals subsequently accepted and transplanted more nonlocal grafts—organs that, even with faster routes, entail inherently longer CIT than local grafts—thereby raising the average CIT across all transplants and offsetting the direct logistics gain. We formalize this mechanism in a model of hospital acceptance and patient matching. The model yields a transparent condition under which average CIT rises after transport priority: when the increase in nonlocal organ availability and acceptance dominates the per-organ CIT savings from faster transport. The model also clarifies how hospital decision rules and patient severity interact with policy to shape outcomes. Empirically, we combine a time-based policy design with a provenance-free method to separate nonlocal from local cases using the distribution of CIT, allowing us to isolate the policy’s direct effect on nonlocal CIT while absorbing contemporaneous changes in local logistics and learning-by-doing in hospital operations. We then test the model’s predictions on case mix (nonlocal share, acceptance of marginal grafts, recipient severity) and outcomes (survival). Our findings highlight a system-level trade-off: logistics reforms that accelerate individual deliveries can worsen aggregate outcomes via equilibrium re-sorting of cases. For policy and management, we caution against KPI regimes that evaluate only transplanted patients and point to guardrails (e.g., eligibility/threshold rules) that preserve urgency and curb price-driven erosion of priority.

讲座人简介：

Baojun Jiang is a professor of marketing at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis. He received an M.S. in physics and an M.S. in electrical engineering from Stanford University, an M.B.A. from the University of Texas at Austin, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in information systems from Carnegie Mellon University. His current research interests include platform-based business models, competitive strategy, behavioral economics, the sharing economy, and marketing-operations interface. His research has been published in top-tier journals such as Management Science, Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, Operations Research, and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. He is on the Editorial Review Board of Journal of Marketing Research and serves as a Senior Editor at Production and Operations Management, a Deputy Editor at Service Science, and an Associate Editor at Decision Sciences.